Syrian Uprising: Arab League acts on Damascus

RSIS presents the following commentary Syrian Uprising: Arab League acts on Damascus by James M. Dorsey. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at  RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg No. 167/2011 dated 15 November 2011 Syrian Uprising: Arab League acts on Damascus By James M. Dorsey Synopsis The Arab League has moved towards action to halt the brutal crackdown on   anti-government protesters in Syria. It has taken decisions to lay the ground for United Nations action against the Assad regime and strengthen calls for  international intervention to stop the bloodshed. Commentary ARAB LEAGUE foreign ministers have given Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad a three-day window to halt the brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters,  failing which they will take the matter to the United Nations. The League’s moves  aim to prevent Syria sliding into civil war following increased fighting between the  Syrian armed forces and significant numbers of military defectors, as well as  mounting sectarian violence. The government crackdown has incurred 3,500 dead  and thousands more wounded among the protesters, particularly in the city of Homs,  a focal point of the eight-month old revolt against the Assad regime. The League’s suspension of Syrian membership and decision to consult with the  UN signal to the embattled Syrian leader that time is running out for his regime.  It also puts on notice opponents of UN sanctions against Syria, particularly  UN Security Council members Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, that  their refusal to back Western efforts to tighten the screws on the Syrian regime  can no longer count on regional support for Assad to resolve the crisis with brute  force. That is an attempt that has so far failed in the face of the protesters’ remarkable resilience and which the Arab League’s moves will make more  difficult, if not impossible, for world and regional powers to tolerate. Civil war looms large Regionally, increased Arab League pressure and willingness to take the issue to the UN on humanitarian grounds can weaken Iran’s unconditional support for  Assad, Iran’s foremost Arab ally. It strengthens those in Iran who believe that  such support has increased the Islamic republic’s isolation from the region  and prevented it from being part of a regional or international solution,  notwithstanding recent Iranian calls for a halt to the bloodshed. The spectre of a civil war in Syria with potential fallout in neighbouring  countries increases pressure on opponents of international efforts to achieve  a halt to the Syrian crackdown. It also will strengthen calls for and add pressure  on the United States and Europe to consider military intervention despite  their reluctance and distraction with their economic woes.  To be sure, the Arab  League explicitly ruled out international military intervention in Syria. Meanwhile, Syrian assertions that the regime is confronting an armed rebellion  rather than peaceful anti-government protests are becoming a self-fulfilling  prophecy. They are said to have the covert support of Saudi funding for arms  purchases in Lebanon and Turkey and tacit Turkish support for the Free Syrian  Army made up of Syrian military defectors that is encamped on the Turkish side  of the Syrian border. The sense of Syria teetering on the brink of civil war is heightened by mounting  signs of sectarian violence particularly in Homs, a predominantly Sunni Muslim  city with a significant minority of Christians and Alawites, who have supported  Assad. The battle lines in Homs between protesters and Assad’s forces are  believed to have been blurred by the targeting of people accused of assisting the  regime as well as its military and militias. Some 100 people have reportedly been  killed in Homs in recent tit-for-tat inter-communal killings. By increasing pressure on Assad, the Arab League is also pushing Syrian  opposition forces to get their act together. The invitation to Syrian opposition  groups to meet with the League in Cairo constitutes an effort to force them to  form a unified front. The absence of such a front has in some ways helped  Assad because of the lack of a clear opposition leadership and uncertainty  about who might come to power if Assad were driven from office. Sanctions start to bite Finally, the League’s  threat to impose sanctions  if Assad fails to halt the  crackdown within the three-day timeline significantly tightens the screws  just when  Western economic sanctions are being felt in Syria with the  threat of a freeze on Arab investments and on assets of Assad associates  in the Gulf. It would further make it difficult for countries like Russia, China  and India to ignore Western and reject UN sanctions and continue to conduct  business as usual with Syria. Oil majors Shell and Total have reduced oil production in Syria because  of the sanctions and in an indication of fiscal constraints Syria has stopped  paying the two companies. Arab League sanctions increase the likelihood  that the European Union will expand its sanction regime by making  it illegal for international firms to maintain oil and gas investments in Syria.  This would not only affect Shell and Total but also Canada’s Suncor Energy, Britain’s Petrofac, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp and the China National  Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Nonetheless, despite the Arab League’s decision to finally put Assad on the  mat and substantially increase pressure on him, there seems no immediate  solution that will halt the bloodshed and help bring Syria back from the brink.  Assad has painted himself into a corner with the brutality of his crackdown  and failure to live up to his own promises, and many in the opposition are  unwilling to consider an exit that would keep him in office. He has given no  indication of being willing to leave and has warned that the fallout of  intervention to remove him would shake the region to its core. That could also be true if full-fledged civil war erupts, which seems  inevitable if the crackdown continues and probably even if it is halted  but Assad remains in office. The only solution is Assad’s departure; the  question is at what cost that will be achieved in terms of Syrian lives  and regional stability. James M. Dorsey is a Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of  International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.   He has been a journalist covering the Middle East for over 30 years. Click here for past commentaries. Click here to subscribe/unsubscribe to the mailing list. Find us on Facebook.