Is the “Azeri spring” starting?

Is the “Azeri spring” starting?

2013 January 25 ( Friday )  13:59:50

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Русский Azərbaycan

As the riots in Azerbaijan’s northwestern Ismayilli district entered their second day after the clashes resumed between security forces and residents, TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent asked the opinions of top US analysts on the developments.

“This [the Ismailli rallies], along with the events in Guba last years, provides more evidence that central government is not really in control of the regions of Azerbaijan, that there is a lot of disillusionment with corruption and arbitrary authority which is occasionally bursting to the surface”, said Thomas de Waal, a Caucasus specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in an interview with TURAN.

In the meantime, he added, “there is so little information that these events are a mystery to me, like many others…”

“The Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, is not immune to the push for greater freedom and transparency in the Middle East and North Africa”, said James Dorsey, a veteran journalist and observer that had covered ethnic and religious conflict in the Middle East and Africa.

In fact, he added, “that realization is one reason why Russia is so adamant on Syria given its concern that revolts could inspire people in its own republics”. 

“Azerbaijan has all the same characteristics that sparked the revolts in Egypt and other countries. Having said that, it is always something local that makes the bucket overflow”, he told TURAN.

There are two things that are largely responsible for motivating protests against government officials in Azerbaijan: “Opposition to corruption within the system and legitimate economic grievances,” according to another analyst Michael B. Bishku, Professor at Georgia Regents University. 

“In a country dependent upon oil and gas revenues, there are still many people who feel the strains of economically making ends meet and are appalled by the attitudes of government officials who ignore their plight and/or take advantage of the system”, he told TURAN.

For Bishku, thre are the options in successful opposition movements against autocratic regimes: 1) bringing change through peaceful means by motivating the masses and by convincing political rulers of the futility of resistance or 2) developing an armed resistance movement that can defeat the ruling regime militarily.  

“Political circumstances usually dictate the more successful perceived course.  Let us hope that positive change can be brought about by the first course”, he emphasized.

The Azerbaijani government, he said, “will not be defeated in elections as long as they have the means to manipulate them”.  “Sustained rather than sporadic opposition and defections from government and the security forces are needed to have any hope of governmental change”.

Comparing the Ismailli events with Arab rallies, Prof. Bishku mentioned that the successful uprisings that took place in the Arab world had great impacts in capital cities as well as other important urban areas and were continuous rather than sporadic.  

Also, security forces either decided to stand aside or defect to the opposition along with dissatisfied government officials.  Sustained and effective activities in Baku and throughout the country among many segments of society will most probably indicate a true “spring” in Azerbaijan.

The West, in his opinion, “should encourage democratization through diplomatic means, but whether they are willing to do anything that might jeopardize their economic interests in Azerbaijan is something else”. --25В-

Alakbar Raufoglu

Washington, DC

01/24/2012

 

Security forces attack Azeri fans in Tehran stadium

By James M. Dorsey

Iranian security forces attacked supporters of Traktor Sazi FC, the foremost soccer club in Tabriz, the capital of Iran’s Turkic East Azerbaijan province, highlighting mounting ethnic tension in the Islamic republic fuelled by economic hardship resulting from harsh international sanctions and controversial economic policies.

Witnesses and press reports said the attack took place during Traktor Sazi’s away fr4om home match earlier this month against Tehran’s Persepolis FC in the capital’s Azadi stadium. It was not immediately clear whether there were any casualties or whether Traktor supporters, who have a history of political protest in stadiums, were arrested.

Iranian soccer sources and Azerbaijan-based Kabir News reported that Traktor fans took off their shirts in the freezing cold during the match to highlight a lack of aid for victims of an earthquake in Varzagan in August in East Azerbaijan that killed 300 people and wounded some 1,400 others.

Allahverdi Dehghani, a member of the Iranian parliament from the region, accused the government at the time of seeking to conceal the severity of the damage and failing to rush sufficient supplies to the region.

“The top officials of Iranian government promised to help survivors and build new houses for them in less than two months but as of now they have failed to do this job. The conditions are deteriorating in Varzaqan as the winter is coming and people cannot tolerate the cold weather,” Kabir News said in reporting the Azadi stadium incident.

Moslem Iskandar Filabi, Sports Commission Chairman of the controversial exile opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), charged in a statement that the Traktor fans were also protesting against government “clerics and thugs” who had been sent to the stadium to encourage them to enter into temporary marriages in a bid to prevent them from staging a protest.

Iran's parliament passed legislation earlier this year authorizing “temporary marriage” as a way of circumventing Islam’s ban on extra-marital sex. The law allows men to have as many sexual partners as they want in accordance with Iran’s interpretation of Sharia law as long as they qualify as a temporary marriage. Sex outside marriage is punishable in Iran by 100 lashes or, if adulterous, by stoning to death. A temporary marriage can be for a few minutes or several years.

Mr. Filabi said the fans chanted slogans mocking and embarrassing the clerics. “It has been 33 years since the mullahs have committed the worst insults and gravest crimes against Iran’s athletes and national heroes, and the entire people in general. Dozens of Iran’s national heroes have been murdered by this infamous regime, and quake victims in Azerbaijan, Bam and other cities and towns across the country are in the harshest of conditions, with poverty and hardships engulfing the lives of millions of our compatriots. This is while the mullahs’ are allocating Iran’s enormous wealth for the spread of terrorism, obtaining nuclear weapons, and supporting criminals such as (embattled Syrian leader) Bashar Assad and (Iraqi president) Nouri Maliki,” Mr. Filabi said.

The NCRI has lost credibility because of its alliance with ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war. It has since fallen out with the post-Saddam government headed by Mr. Maliki.

Analysts said the incident in the Tehran stadium reflected the government’s mounting problems as a result of international sanctions imposed on Iran because of its nuclear program. The sanctions have worsened the effect of what many see as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s misguided economic policies.

Parliament last month summoned Mr. Ahmadinejad to explain what legislators called his mismanagement of Iran’s response to the sanctions that have reduced oil exports to a dwindle and sparked a collapse of the Iranian riyal.

“As the economy slips, the government becomes more and more worried about separatism. As a result, East Azerbaijan has become increasingly militarized. At times, the entire stadium in Tabriz chants Turkish songs as a protest,” said a Baku-based analyst.

The Tehran stadium incident cast a shadow over the soccer playing president’s troubled efforts to spruce up his image by associating himself with the country’s most popular sport. Mr. Ahmadinejad went as far during a visit to the Iranian national team in October as shaking hands with Ali Karimi, one of several players who wore green wrist bands during a 2009 international match in protest of alleged rigging of presidential elections which returned him to a second term in office.

The visit, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s third in recent years, echoed attempts by deposed presidents Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Zine El Abedine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Abdullah Saleh of Yemen to exploit soccer’s prestige in a bid to shore up their popularity in the years before their overthrow in 2011.

Soccer represents however for autocrats like Mr. Ahmadinejad a double-edged sword that both offers opportunity and constitutes a threat. The funeral last year of a famous Iranian soccer player in the Azadi stadium turned into a mass protest against his government.

Traktor Sazi fans have been in the forefront of intermittent stadium protests in Iran during the past 18 months, raising the specter of ethnic strife in a bid to achieve greater autonomy for East Azerbaijan’s predominantly Azeri population who feel that they are discriminated against. In one incident, fans of Traktor Sazi, which is owned by the state-run Iran Tractor Manufacturing Co. (ITMCO), wore shirts with the Turkish and Azerbaijan flags and raised the Azerbaijani flag.

"The team has taken on the symbolism of embodying the national identity of Azerbaijanis in Iran. They regard the team's victories as a means of peacefully defeating the enemies of Azerbaijan, and this has become a powerful rallying tool of ethno-nationalism in the region," said Farzin Farzad, executive director of the Network of Azerbaijani-Americans from Iran.

“The main (Iranian concern) is that the idea of Turkism is strengthening in South Azerbaijan,” News.Az quoted Saftar Rahimli, a member of the board of the World Azerbaijani’s Congress, as saying at the time of the showing of the flag. Mr. Rahimli was referring to Eastern Azerbaijan by its nationalist Azeri name. Earlier protests were sparked by the Iranian parliament’s refusal to fund efforts to save the environmentally endangered Lake Orumiyeh.

A decision by security forces in October of last year to bar fans entry into the stadium during a match against Tehran’s Esteghlal sent thousands into the streets of Tabriz shouting “Azerbaijan is united" and ““Long live united Azerbaijan with its capital in Tabriz.” Scores were injured as security forces tried to break up the protest. Cars honking their horns choked traffic.

“Wherever Tractor goes, fans of the opposing club chant insulting slogans. They imitate the sound of donkeys, because Azerbaijanis are historically derided as stupid and stubborn. I remember incidents going back to the time that I was a teenager,” said a long-standing observer of Iranian soccer.

James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog.

Dorsey on Arab Movements and Impacts to Azerbaijan (in English, Turkish and Russian)

INTERVIEW

2011

Dorsey on Arab Movements and Impacts to Azerbaijan 2011 December 02 ( Friday )  18:35:19  James M. Dorsey is a veteran journalist and commentator on Middle East affairs for more than three decades. Over his career, he served as a foreign correspondent for others; The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor and United Press International in the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Central America and Washington DC. He was also followed closely the Arab uprising while being in the Middle East. TURAN Washington DC correspondent asked Mr. Dorsey if the movements in the Arab World impacted the Western powers, such as US policy towards the oil-reach dictatorship countries. Answer: The revolts in the Middle East and North Africa are genuine and local. They are the result of deep-seated dissatisfaction with autocratic regimes that did not deliver but that were supported by the US which was a way of maintaining stability in a key part of the world. That worked for as long as it lasted. It allowed for governments to carry out unpopular domestic and foreign policies. That is no longer possible.  Governments, autocratic or not, will have to become more attentive to public opinion.  The international community has recently been very concerned about the situation with human rights and freedoms in Azerbaijan as well, What kind of conclusions do you think should the countries such as Azerbaijan, get from Egypt, Syria and others where freedom movements are on the rise? There is a global trend demanding greater openness and transparency fuelled by a lack of confidence in institutions and certainly in the Middle East and North Africa often a perception of illegitimate government. In the US, that trend expresses itself in occupying Wall Street, in Southeast Asia protests either on the street or at the ballot box, in the Middle East and North Africa with a wave of revolts. Vision would be to recognize the trend, realize that it is unavoidable and get in front of the cart instead of behind it. By doing so countries like Azerbaijan could become models. Myanmar is an example. What is the reason for the West then to tolerate various violations in countries like Azerbaijan? Answer: Azerbaijan is an important country geopolitically as well as in terms of energy. That is why the West has supported Azerbaijan despite its lack of openness. Change ultimately has to come from countries themselves. Having said that, Arab revolts are likely to make it more difficult for the international community to remain silent about the lack of freedom and violations of human rights. When speaking of the Arab spring, many observers still continue to wonder, how did the whole thing start, and why now?  Maybe the Wikileaks cables played a certain role in it? Answer: Wikileaks simply gives an insight into US diplomatic perceptions. There was little new in them and they certainly did not spark the Arab revolts. In some cases they simply confirmed what was already known.  MÜSAHIBƏ 2011 Amerikalı ekspert: Əhalinin etirazı səsvermə qutularında özünü göstərsə yaxşıdır 2011 Dekabr 02 ( Cümə )  17:50:55  Ceyms M.Dorsi 30 il iş stajı olan beynəlxalq hüquq üzrə jurnalist, Yaxın Şərq işləri üzrə mütəxəssisdir. O, Yaxın Şərqdə, Avropada, Afrikada, Mərkəzi Amerika və Vaşinqtonda Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor və United Press International-ın müxbiri kimi işləyib. O, həmçinin ərəb dünyasında son hadisələri izləyirdi. Turanın Vaşinqton müxbiri ilə söhbətində Dorsi bu hadisələrə baxışını bölüşüb. Qərbin ərəb dünyasındakı hadisələrə təsirinin olub-olmaması barədə suala cavabda jurnalist deyib ki, Yaxın Şərqdə və Şimali Afrikada üsyanlar həqiqidir və elə yerində törəyib. “Bu hadisələr ABŞ-ın dünyanın bu hissəsində sabitliyi qoruyub saxlamaq məqsədilə dəstəklədiyi avtoritar rejimlərdən hədsiz narazılığın nəticəsidir”, ekspert belə hesab edir. Lakin bu, daim davam edə bilərdi və mütəxəssisin fikrincə, başqa ölkələrdəki avtoritar rejimlər bundan dərs çıxarmalı və ictimai fikrə daha diqqətlə yanaşmalıdırlar.  Ərəb yazının Azərbaycan üçün mümkün nəticələri barədə suala cavabda Dorsi belə deyib: “Dünyada qlobal təmayül hakimiyyətdən daha çox açıqlıq və şəffaflıq tələb edir. Şəffaflıqda nöqsan olan yerlərdə dövlətə etibarsızlıq artır. Yaxın Şərqdə və Şimali Afrikada bu əhval-ruhiyyə hökumətin qanunsuz qəbul edilməsi ilə nəticələndi. ABŞ-da bu təmayül insanların Uoll-striti ələ keçirməsində, Cənub-Şərqi Asiyada etiraz aksiyalarında, Yaxın Şərqdə və Şimali Afrikada üsyanlarda özünü göstərdi. Buna görə təmayülləri vaxtında müəyyən etmək və bu prosesin qaçılmaz olduğunu anlamaq çox vacibdir. Bu ssenari Azərbaycanda tamamilə mümkündür. Hadisələrin belə inkişafının sonuncu nümunəsi Myanmadır”. Qərbin Azərbaycan kimi ölkələrdə çoxsaylı pozuntulara dözməsinin səbəbi nədir? Bu suala cavabda ekspert deyib: «Azərbaycan geosiyasət, həmçinin energetika nöqteyi-nəzərdən mühüm ölkədir. Buna görə açıqlıq olmamasına baxmayaraq, Qərb Azərbaycan hakimiyyətini dəstəkləyir. Nəticədə dəyişikliklər ölkələrin özlərindən gəlməlidir. Amma düşünürəm ki, ərəb üsyanları beynəlxalq ictimaiyyət üçün azadlığın olmaması və insan hüquqlarının pozulması ilə əlaqədar susqunluğu davam etdirməyi daha da çətinləşdirir”.  Ərəb yazından danışarkən bir çox müşahidəçilər sual verir – niyə məhz indi? Ola bilər ki, Wikileaks müəyyən rol oynayıb? Bu suala cavabda Dorsi bildirib ki, Wikileaks sadəcə Amerika diplomatiyası anlayışı haqqında təsəvvür yaratdı. Əslində bu teleqramlarda çox az yeniliklər var idi və onlar, əlbəttə ki, ərəb üsyanı üçün qığılcım ola bilərdi. Bəzi hallarda onlar yalnız artıq məlum olanları təsdiq etdi. ИНТЕРВЬЮ 2011 Протест лучше иметь в корзине для голосования, чем в виде пинка под зад 2011 Dекабрь 02 ( Пятница )  17:09:09  Джеймс М. Дорси -  журналист-международник, эксперт по ближневосточным делам с 30 летним стажем. Он  работал корреспондентом в  Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor и United Press International на Ближнем Востоке, в Европе, Африке, Центральной Америке и Вашингтоне. Он также отслеживал последние события в арабском мире. В беседе с корреспондентом TURAN в Вашингтоне,  Дорси поделился своим видением этих событий. На вопрос, повлиял ли Запад на события в арабском мире, журналист сказал, что восстания на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке - подлинные и имеют местное происхождение.  «Они являются результатом глубинного недовольства авторитарными режимами, которых поддерживали США с целью сохранения  стабильности в этой части мира», - считает он.  Однако это не могло длиться вечно и  нынешние авторитарные режимы в других частях света должны извлечь уроки и быть более внимательными к общественному мнению, полагает эксперт. На вопрос о  возможных последствиях Арабской весны для Азербайджана, Дорси ответил так. «Глобальная тенденция  в мире требует большей открытости и прозрачности от властей, Там, где есть дефицит открытости, растет недоверие к государству. На Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке эти настроения привели к тому, что правительство стало восприниматься, как незаконное. В США эта тенденция выражается в захвате людьми Уолл-стрит, в Юго-Восточной Азии - в акциях протеста, на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке – в  восстаниях. Поэтому, очень важно вовремя распознать тенденции и понимать, что это процесс неизбежный и лучше получить протест в корзине для голосования, а не в виде пинка под зад. Подобный сценарий  в Азербайджане вполне возможен. Последний пример такого развития событий – Мьянма. В чем причина того, что Запад терпит многочисленные нарушения в таких странах, как Азербайджан? На этот вопрос эксперт ответил так: «Азербайджан -   важная страна в плане геополитики, так и энергетики. Вот почему Запад поддерживает власти Азербайджана, несмотря на  отсутствие открытости.   Изменения, в конечном счете, должны исходить от самих стран. Но думаю, что  арабские восстания делают  более трудным вопрос для международного сообщества сохранять молчание по поводу отсутствия свободы и нарушения прав человека. Говоря об арабской весне, многие наблюдатели спрашивают – почему именно сейчас? Может быть, Wikileaks  сыграли определенную роль? На этот вопрос эксперт ответил, что  Wikileaks просто дал представление о восприятии и понимании  американской дипломатии. На самом деле, в этих телеграммах было мало что нового, и они, конечно же, не могли стать искрой для арабского восстания. В некоторых случаях они просто подтвердили то, что было уже известно.